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• Time of issue:2018-03-02
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(Summary description)In 2018, the overall trend of the petroleum and chemical industry will continue to be positive, and the overall price level will maintain an upward trend; The main revenue of the entire industry will exceed 15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 10% year-on-year; The total profit is close to 900 billion yuan, an increase of about 5%; The total import and export volume exceeded 630 billion US dollars, an increase of about 10%. This is the information obtained by a reporter from China Chemical Daily at the 2018 Petrochemical Industry Economic Operation Conference held on February 6th.
Fu Xiangsheng, Vice President of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, analyzed that the industry continued to maintain a positive momentum in 2018, supported by many positive factors. From a domestic perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has proposed to increase support for the real economy and accelerate the construction of a modern economic system. It is expected that the GDP growth rate will reach 6.5% this year. In addition, from the perspective of environmental policies, the "Blue Sky Defense War" and "Pollution Prevention and Control Campaign" will continue to exert efforts, which will have a profound impact on the future economic operation of the industry.
From an international perspective, the global economy showed highly synchronized growth in 2017, with multiple institutions and large investment banks making optimistic expectations for the world economy in 2018. According to IMF statistics, the economic growth rate of three-quarters of the global economy will accelerate in 2018, becoming the largest global economic growth in the past decade. From the perspective of international oil prices, it is expected that world oil demand will grow moderately in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5 million barrels per day. Therefore, it is expected that international oil prices will continue to rise amidst fluctuations, and the annual average price of Brent crude oil will be around $60 per barrel, higher than the $54.74 per barrel in 2017.
Zhu Fang, Director of the Information and Marketing Department of the Petrochemical Federation, stated that based on the current positive macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, as well as the positive momentum of momentum transformation, deleveraging, and green development, it is expected that the overall petroleum and chemical market will continue to maintain a positive pattern in 2018, with the overall price level maintaining an upward trend, but the increase will be reduced.
Fu Xiangsheng also emphasized that although the industry will continue to maintain a positive momentum in 2018, it still faces many challenges and constraints. Firstly, resource constraints are becoming increasingly severe, with China's external dependence on crude oil and natural gas reaching 68.4% and 38.4% respectively in 2017, both of which have increased compared to the previous year; Secondly, structural contradictions remain prominent, with a trade deficit of $1974 billion across the entire industry, a significant increase of 45.1% year-on-year; Thirdly, the continuous decline in investment will have a negative impact on the industry's development potential. In addition, low R&D investment, slow conversion of old and new driving forces, the need to improve efficiency levels, and frequent trade frictions all pose constraints to the high-quality development of the industry.
Fu Xiangsheng pointed out that in order to achieve the expected goal of steady progress and continuous improvement in 2018, the entire industry should focus on six tasks: eliminating outdated production capacity, increasing technological innovation, promoting green development, building industrial clusters, deepening international cooperation, and improving prediction and warning capabilities.